Matchup: Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan

Vegas Line: WMU -5.5

Room44B Predicted Line: WMU -6

Analysis

Western Michigan wins 5/6 matchups here, with the only matchup going to Eastern Michigan being their passing offense against WMU’s passing defense. Everything else skews pretty heavily in WMU’s favor. EMU’s offense in general isn’t very good, and it is mostly dragged down by their very poorly rated rushing attack. WMU has a good rush defense, so all signs point to that element of EMU’s offense being completely shut down.

The Closest Prior Matchups for WMU suggest offensive production of 45 points, but surprisingly a defensive performance allowing 40. On the other side, EMU’s CPM suggest a lower offensive output of 26 points, and the defense allowing 24. This seems to indicate a slightly more favorable matchup for EMU than the Power Indexes do, but in the end the model thinks that WMU covers the spread on the road.