Matchup: Michigan State vs. Ohio State
Vegas Line: Ohio State -19
Room44B Predicted Line: Ohio State -16
Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: Ohio State -449
Analysis
Michigan State looks to keep it competitive here against Ohio State, who is favored by almost 3 touchdowns. The loser of this game (especially if it’s Michigan State) looks like they’ll likely be out of the College Football Playoff. The model does like Michigan State in all of their offensive matchups, however, it thinks that Ohio State’s offense has a much greater advantage. Ohio State has the #1 rated offense in all of College Football according to the model, while Michigan State’s defense is ranked 90th overall.
Michigan State’s passing Power Index is 1.57 and ranked 17th, going against Ohio State’s defensive PI of .91, which is 26th in the country. This gives Michigan State a little sliver of hope for hitting some big passing plays. Their Rushing PI sets up even better, as it is ranked 8th at 1.99. Ohio State has a good rush defense, however, so it will still be an uphill battle.
The other side of the ball for Michigan State tells a much more grim tale. Their defense will be hard pressed to hold back Ohio State. In the passing game, Ohio State is rated 5th at 2.14, while MSU has a defensive PI of .91, so they look like they will only slightly slow down the Ohio State passing attack. Rushing is similar, and actually even more lopsided towards Ohio State. And you have to think that if Ohio State has the Michigan State defense on their heels and looking for shots over their heads, there will be running lanes open all afternoon.
Michigan State Closest Prior Matchup Score:
29-31
Ohio State Closest Prior Matchup Score:
59-17
These CPM matchups do not bode well for Michigan State either. They are set up for giving up a huge number on defense, and look like they might struggle to hit 30 on offense. The model thinks that there might be just enough plays to keep Michigan State under the spread, but it admittedly looks like a tough road ahead for the Spartans.