Matchup: Georgia vs. Alabama
Vegas Line: Georgia -6.5
Room44B Predicted Line: Georgia -8
Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: Georgia -212
Analysis
Georgia really is so historically highly rated, it’s surprising Alabama wins a single matchup. Everyone knows Georgia’s defense is hands-down the best in the country, but I think it surprises people to know that their offense is highly rated as well. Georgia is 1st in literally every single Power Index except for passing offense, where they are 2nd. It’s absurd, really.
The matchup most people are talking about is of course Georgia’s defense against Alabama’s offense. But Georgia’s defense is so overwhelmingly dominant, there’s not much to see there. On the flip side, however, you see the long matchup that Alabama wins – their rushing defense against Georgia’s rushing offense. Alabama has put together a sneaky good season defensively, especially against the run, where they’re ranked 4th in the country.
The lone “weak” spot for Georgia is their YPA deviation. From their struggle in the opener to an absurd game against UAB, they’ve had some pretty different passing numbers, although they’re still consistently good outside of the Clemson game. Still, there might be something to keep an eye on here if Bama can stop the run, will the passing game be consistently good enough to keep the chains moving and keep the pressure on Alabama’s offense against a brick wall Georgia defense.
Alabama certainly has a chance in this game, as they’ll be far and away the most talented team Georgia has played outside of their opener against Clemson, and Alabama can always beat anyone. But if Georgia continues to play the way they have been, this one looks like they’ll pull away late and cover the spread of 6.5.
Georgia Closest Prior Matchup Score:
41-17
Alabama Closest Prior Matchup Score:
38-29
Both teams are so massively distant from any other comparable teams at this point, that CPM doesn’t seem to really apply here. Georgia is far and away the best team in the country according to the metrics, so there doesn’t seem to be much to draw from these data points.