Matchup: Western Kentucky vs. UTSA

Vegas Line: Western Kentucky -1.5

Room44B Predicted Line: Western Kentucky -5

Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: Western Kentucky -134

Analysis

In one of the 5 rematches set for this weekend, Western Kentucky looks to take down UTSA for the Conference USA championship. The good news is that they’re projected to win 4/6 matchups. The bad news is that they lost the first game they played. UTSA has had its perfect season derailed now, but we know they will put up a fight in this one.

Western Kentucky has a very highly rated offense on a per-play basis, although their running game is a bit lacking there. Fortunately for UTSA, that’s their biggest strength on defense. So it looks like WKU will need to rely on consistent wins in the passing game against a mediocre UTSA passing defense. On the other side, UTSA will try their best to run the ball and control the clock and hope that they can hit a shot here and there in the passing game to keep WKU honest.

In the end, the model sees WKU having made some improvements since the first matchup, and looks for them to win and cover the 1.5 point spread.

Closest Prior Matchups

This game is a rematch, so there’s not much to take away from the CPM scores in this one.