Matchup: Toledo vs. Ohio

Vegas Line: Toledo -7

Room44B Predicted Line: Toledo -12

Analysis

Toledo wins 5/6 matchups here, with the only matchup going to Ohio being their rushing attack vs. Toledo’s rush defense. Everything else favors Toledo here by an average PI of ~1.4. Toledo’s YPA and YPC deviation are a little bit of a concern, but Ohio has some deviations of their own, and their defense looks to be too bad to overcome according to the model.

The Closest Prior Matchups for Toledo suggest offensive production of 49 and defensive effort limiting Ohio to 22. On the flip side, Ohio’s CPMs suggest 34 points of offense and 34 points on defense. Taking these matchups into account further points to a pretty easy cover for Toledo here.