Matchup: Ohio State vs. Michigan

Vegas Line: Ohio State -8

Room44B Predicted Line: Ohio State -11

Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: Ohio St. -153

Analysis

Ohio State, fresh off a thrashing of Michigan State, is riding high and looks like they’re rounding into playoff form. The model has them as the #2 ranked team, and they certainly look like the best challenger to dethrone Georgia. But Michigan is no pushover according to the model, which has Michigan as the 5th best team overall, although the gap seems to be big enough for Ohio State to cover.

Ohio State’s offense, rated as the 2nd best overall – 4th in passing and 3rd in rushing – comes off of a huge performance against Michigan State. One thing to keep in mind, however, is Michigan State’s pass defense is rated 45th in the country according to the model. Michigan’s is rated 7th. So the Wolverines should put up a much better challenge against this Ohio State offense.

The model has Michigan’s passing game as the only matchup that favors the Wolverines, and even then the margin is razor thin. It just doesn’t seem to be enough to keep them within what is already a large spread for a top-5 matchup and a rivalry game.

Ohio State Closest Prior Matchup Score:

33-17

Michigan Closest Prior Matchup Score:

21-17

It’s hard to tell how much stock to put into these matchups. Michigan’s defense does seem to be comparable to Penn State’s, but their offense seems to be more dynamic than Nebraska’s. As for the other side of the ball, there’s no question that Ohio State’s offense is light years ahead of Wisconsin’s.