Matchup: Buffalo vs. Ball State

Vegas Line: Ball State -6.5

Room44B Predicted Line: Ball State -7

Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: Ball State -151

Analysis

Buffalo comes to Ball State in a season finale in some Tuesday night #MACtion. Buffalo has struggled on both sides of the ball this year. Their best attack is their rushing attack, but it is nowhere near what they are used to having there. On the other side, Ball State has had some inconsistencies on offense, but has overall fared a little better than Buffalo.

In terms of matchups, all but one favor Ball State. Buffalo’s passing attack against a fairly poor Ball State pass defense is the lone matchup that favors Buffalo, and even that one is slight. The rest go to Ball State, the most significant being the running game. Ball State looks to be able to control the game in that aspect, which bodes well for them to cover a spread that is beneath a touchdown.

Buffalo Closest Prior Matchup Score:

27-56

Ball State Closest Prior Matchup Score:

29-31

While both CPMs predict a loss, Buffalo was clearly outmatched and overwhelmed on defense the last time they played an offense similar to Ball State’s. The CPMs and the matchups all point to a Ball State cover, albeit a close one.