Matchup: Fresno State vs. San Jose State

Vegas Line: Fresno State -7.5

Room44B Predicted Line: Fresno State -8

Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: Fresno State -220

Analysis

Fresno State looks to finish off their regular season on a high note against San Jose State. Fresno has had a good season, while San Jose State is already looking forward to next year. The matchups here heavily favor Fresno State, with the lone exception being Fresno’s sub-par running game vs. a decent San Jose State running defense. Unfortunately for the Spartans, the rest of the matchups look to more than overcome that disadvantage.

Fresno’s passing game is subject to some off games, with a very large passing deviation, but with a pass defense that is barely above average, San Jose State doesn’t look well-equipped enough to cause Fresno any problems.

Fresno State Closest Prior Matchup Score:

40-27

San Jose State Closest Prior Matchup Score:

14-48

Both teams’ CPM scores back up what the matchups point to – a lopsided Fresno State victory. Fresno has had a good bit of success against similar teams, while San Jose State has struggled. The model predicts a Fresno State cover in this one, albeit surprisingly close.