Matchup: Iowa vs. Nebraska

Vegas Line: Nebraska -3.5

Room44B Predicted Line: Nebraska -7

Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: Nebraska -313

Analysis

Nebraska is looking for a merciful end to a grueling Big 10 season that has seen them navigate one of the toughest schedules in the nation. On the bright side, they’ve been competitive in every game. On the down side, most of those have been in losses. As a result of that competitiveness, the model loves Nebraska. The question mainly becomes one of if they can finally win one of these close, hard-fought games.

As far as the matchups go, Nebraska is favored in every one, except for their rushing offense, which is just above average. The model loves their passing game, and it seems to match up well with Iowa’s defense. Outside of some turnover luck, this seems to set up well for Nebraska.

The model doesn’t take into account the loss of Martinez, and it remains to be seen what effect that will have on the game. Backup QB’s always seem to be a toss-up in the college game.

Iowa Closest Prior Matchup Score:

23-27

Nebraska Closest Prior Matchup Score:

16-35

The CPM scores do not bode well for Nebraska here, but Iowa’s doesn’t appear to be much better. It looks like the model is relying more on the matchups and home field advantage than gleaning much from prior performances.