Matchup: UTEP vs. UAB

Vegas Line: UAB -13

Room44B Predicted Line: UAB -16

Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: UAB -1049

Analysis

UAB comes into this game fresh off a heartbreaking last play loss as they were trying to play spoiler to UTSA. The good thing for the Blazers is that the model thinks this is a good bounce-back game for them to end the regular season on.

All matchups favor UAB except for UTEP’s passing offense, which is ranked surprisingly highly. Unfortunately for the Miners, that seems to be the only thing they can rely on with UAB’s excellent rush defense. UAB’s offense is also highly regarded according to the model, despite being very erratic with their performances (see 118th in passing consistency). At the end of the day, the Blazers look to be too much for UTEP’s mediocre offense and defense to contain.

UTEP Closest Prior Matchup Score:

23-44

UAB Closest Prior Matchup Score:

21-34

Both CPM scores show a loss here, and both teams have UTSA to use as comparable opponents. The fact that UAB was 1 second away from a victory in that game as opposed to UTEP’s blowout loss seems to confirm what the matchups tell us – UTSA is outmatched in this one. The Blazers are set to cover the spread.