Matchup: Alabama vs. Auburn

Vegas Line: Alabama -19.5

Room44B Predicted Line: Alabama -10

Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: Alabama -189

Analysis

The last hurdle for Alabama on their road to the #CFP is their arch rival Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Auburn has lately been a tough place for Alabama to play, and their struggles on the road this season have been well documented. So despite being #3 overall according to the overall team ratings, the model has them failing to cover.

Starting off with the matchups, Alabama is heavily favored in the passing matchup, as Auburn’s defense is surprisingly pedestrian in that aspect. Their defensive Passing PI is their 2nd lowest rated category, meanwhile it is Alabama’s strongest. On the flip side, Auburn’s passing attack is their worst rated category, and Alabama looks poised to shut it down. In fact, the only category that Auburn is favored in is their rushing defense against an Alabama rushing offense that has slowed down as of late, mainly due to lack of depth and some key injuries.

One thing to keep in mind for this matchup is that we do not take injuries into account, so this model assumes Bo Nix is still suiting up for the Tigers. It’s undeniable that Nix would give Auburn a much better chance against the Crimson Tide, as his escapability and improvisational skills were guaranteed to cause a couple of big gains each game, especially against an Alabama passing defense that is prone to coverage busts and missed tackles.

Alabama Closest Prior Matchup Score:

31-41

Auburn Closest Prior Matchup Score:

31-20

The two CPM scores don’t paint a very good picture for Alabama. The comparable matchups for Auburn don’t look too great once you dig in a little, though, as Texas A&M’s offense isn’t on the same level as Alabama, and Alabama’s defense is better than Ole Miss’. Still, the model does predict Auburn to cover this very large spread.