Matchup: Cincinnati vs. East Carolina

Vegas Line: Cincinnati -14

Room44B Predicted Line: Cincinnati -17

Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: Cincinnati -310

Analysis

Cincinnati finally looked like the #CFP hopeful they want everyone to view them as last week. The question now becomes can they continue that trend and muscle their way into the playoff, or will East Carolina play a spoiler role of their own?

From a matchup perspective, this is a lopsided one. This isn’t surprising from a team ranked 4th overall by the model. Cincinnati’s biggest claim for being elite comes in the form of their passing defense. That coupled with an opposing passing offense that is rated 59th sure looks to be a huge mismatch. The numbers running the ball aren’t much better.

The only concern for Cincinnati, if you have to really look for shortcomings, is that their running game can be a little up-and-down, with a consistency score that is 79th in the country. But unfortunately for East Carolina, their defense doesn’t look to be in the position to take advantage at 105th in the country. Still, Cincinnati has had some underwhelming performances against worse competition (much, much worse) so if they throw out another clunker, this East Carolina team is more than capable of taking advantage.

Cincinnati Closest Prior Matchup Score:

38-14

East Carolina Closest Prior Matchup Score:

52-29

The Cincinnati CPM scores seem to be pretty indicative of the thinking for this game. East Carolina is similar to Indiana and SMU on offense and defense, respectively. The East Carolina CPM doesn’t look to be very insightful, since East Carolina hasn’t played anyone near Cincinnati’s level (Tulane is dozens of places away from Cincinnati on both offense and defense). The model like Cincinnati to cover the two touchdown spread, just as a Playoff team should in this spot.