Matchup: Penn State vs. Michigan State

Vegas Line: Pick’em

Room44B Predicted Line: Michigan State -3

Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: Michigan State -128

Analysis

Unfortunately for both of these teams, all hopes of a CFP berth are all but evaporated. This game, however, still looms large as both teams eye a big win to close out the regular season. Michigan State is looking to continue their meteoric rise to the top of the Big 10, and the model likes their chances.

The matchups are split 50/50, with Michigan State winning the running game battle, while Penn State wins the passing game battle. This isn’t surprising with Kenneth Walker on the field for MSU and Penn State’s struggles this season consistently running the ball. MSU’s much-maligned passing defense is looking to play much better this week. The good news is there’s no way but up from last week’s debacle.

Despite Penn State being more highly rated as a whole (29th vs. 40th), the model thinks that the matchups, namely the running game, and home field advantage are enough to push MSU over the edge and to a win.

Penn State Closest Prior Matchup Score:

20-20

Michigan State Closest Prior Matchup Score:

38-17

The CPM scores here also favor Michigan State, but it is worth noting that Penn State’s offense is considerably better than Miami’s. In the end, an MSU victory is the model’s prediction.