Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State

Vegas Line: Oklahoma State -3.5

Room44B Predicted Line: Oklahoma State -5

Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: Oklahoma State -146

Analysis

Both teams are fighting for their #CFP lives as this is a de facto quarterfinal game for both teams. Oklahoma comes in still without a real “signature win” as they seem to have played down to some of their lesser competition this year. Their improved defense has unfortunately coincided with a down year on the offensive side of the ball, at least by Oklahoma standards.

The matchups here look good for Oklahoma State. They have a stout defense, ranked 6th overall, and are decent on the offensive side of the ball as well, especially lately. The Cowboys are favored in every matchup except for their rushing attack against a surprisingly good Oklahoma rushing defense. One thing to note is that Oklahoma puts a lot of pressure on opposing offenses to score, so they might not run as much as “normal,” but 21st in the country is still nothing to sneeze at for Oklahoma.

Oklahoma’s offense has been good, but not great this year. Another disappointing aspect is how inconsistent they have been. They are 65th and 86th in the country in terms of consistency which doesn’t bode well against the Cowboy defense.

Oklahoma Closest Prior Matchup Score:

28-31

Oklahoma State Closest Prior Matchup Score:

24-20

The CPM scores seem to point to an Oklahoma State win as well. Their defense seems poised to hold Oklahoma under 30 points, and their offense seems like it’s just good enough to hit the 30 point mark. The model like Oklahoma State to cover the spread and head into the Big 12 Championship Game with their CFP hopes in tact.