Matchup: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State

Vegas Line: Oklahoma State -5

Room44B Predicted Line: Oklahoma State -3

Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: Oklahoma State-130

Analysis

Another rematch, this time for all the Big 12 marbles. Oklahoma State got the better of Baylor in the first matchup, and the model thinks they should be favored again. But it does seem to think that Baylor has caught its stride a little bit, and looks for this one to be closer than the first time these two teams met.

In terms of matchups, Oklahoma State does win all except one – their rushing offense against a stout Baylor rushing defense. But most of the matchup wins here are only slightly in the Cowboys’ favor. Oklahoma also potentially exposed some weaknesses in Oklahoma State’s special teams, and if they make some of those same mental errors this week, Baylor is capable of taking full advantage.

In summary, the model likes this Baylor to cover the spread of 5 points, but it does think Oklahoma State pulls it off in the end.

Closest Prior Matchups

This game is a rematch, so there’s not much to take away from the CPM scores in this one.