Matchup: Oregon vs. Georgia

Vegas Line: Georgia -17

Room44B Predicted Line: Georgia -29

Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: Georgia -832

Analysis

Note that the matchups above are purely based on 2021’s numbers. Some adjustments have been made for the scoring model based on offseason attrition, portaling, coaching changes, etc.

So everyone knows that Georgia’s defense is going to take a step back this year, at least in Week 1, so the questions really is how much of a drop there will be. The talent is there, and Georgia had the benefit of so many blowouts last year they were able to get their depth some quality reps. That being said, there’s still got to be some dropoff from one of the best defenses to ever step on a college football field.

The other question on Georgia’s sideline is their offense. Can their offense take it up a notch this year to make up for a potentially slightly softer defense? Their offense was power rated very highly, as you can see, but the efficiency metrics don’t necessarily translate to gobs of points, as you can see their explosiveness on offense wasn’t great (42nd). Their offense was definitely the beneficiary of a suffocating defense not letting opposing offenses give their team’s defense much of a rest.

Oregon, on the other hand, will be breaking in a whole new coaching staff, and they lost some key defenders as well. As if all that wasn’t enough to overcome, their playing this “neutral site” game in…Atlanta. The models seems to think Georgia can pretty much name its score in this one.