Matchup: Penn St. vs. Purdue

Vegas Line: Penn St. -3.5

Room44B Predicted Line: Penn St. -5

Room44B Min Value Moneyline: Penn St. -136

Analysis

Note that the matchups above are purely based on 2021’s numbers. Some adjustments have been made for the scoring model based on offseason attrition, portaling, coaching changes, etc.

Penn State is looking to turn things around after a disappointing 2021 campaign. They didn’t seem to perform as well as their stats and ratings would imply. They almost seemed to suffer from “the Nebraska effect” where they just struggled in close games.

Purdue on the other hand seemed to play up to their competition a bit, and were able to perform very well against some good teams. Their deviations were a bit high though, which indicates that they were somewhat inconsistent. In fact, they win 5 of the head-to-head stat matchups here from last year, so they have more than a puncher’s chance to pull the upset. If this game were in Happy Valley we’d feel better about Penn State making it an easy win.