Matchup: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma

Vegas Line: Oklahoma -4

Room44B Predicted Line: Oklahoma -7

Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: Alabama -453

Analysis

As you can see above, both Oklahoma and Iowa St. match up well on offense against the other defense. In fact, all three sets of matchups favor Iowa St. more than Oklahoma. Iowa State is actually more highly ranked in Adjusted PI, which takes into account several factors outside of pure production, but the big factor in play here that is hard to see in the matchup card is efficiency. While Oklahoma isn’t the most efficient team out there, they are still more efficient than Iowa St. While all these matchups are based on yards per play, Oklahoma tends to make better use of those yards from a scoring perspective.

One positive note for Iowa State is that they’re more consistent than Oklahoma in both rushing and passing. In fact, Iowa State is top-10 in terms of passing consistency. They’re not highly ranked in that regard, but it does help stabilize their offense a bit.

Iowa State Closest Prior Matchup Score:

30-31

Oklahoma Closest Prior Matchup Score:

55-27

This matchup is interesting from a CPM perspective as both teams share the same similar matchups. As you can see, however, this further underscores the scoring capability that is discussed above, with Oklahoma scoring 55 points against the same defense that Iowa State only scored 30 against. In the end, the model thinks that Oklahoma’s offense and the home field advantage are too much to overcome for Iowa State.