Matchup: Wake Forest vs. Clemson

Vegas Line: Clemson -3.5

Room44B Predicted Line: Clemson -7

Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: Clemson -166

Analysis

In most years, seeing Clemson as a favorite against Wake Forest wouldn’t raise any eyebrows, but this year these two teams have had completely different trajectories. That makes it interesting that Clemson is actually favored in this matchup. This game pits 2 great units against each other, and 2 pretty terrible units against each other. Wake Forest has had a great offensive season, while Clemson has seen their production fall off a cliff from recent years.

Wake’s passing offense and composite offense numbers do (slightly) win the matchup against Clemson’s defense. Clemson, however, wins the rushing matchup on both sides of the ball. Clemson also has more consistency in the passing game, the only problem being that it has been consistently bad. The upside for them in this matchup is that Wake’s defensive numbers are not much better. In fact, Clemson’s passing and overall offense are ranked around 100th, and Wake’s defense is ranked in the same level.

Wake Forest Closest Prior Matchup Score:

45-7

Clemson Closest Prior Matchup Score:

21-8

The CPM comparison here really underscores what the matchups above point to. Wake Forest has a very good, high scoring offense, while Clemson boasts a great defense. The model thinks that Clemson’s talent and home field advantage give them the edge here to overcome their offensive struggles and pull out a cover.