Matchup: San Diego St. vs. UNLV

Vegas Line: San Diego St. -11

Room44B Predicted Line: San Diego St. -12

Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: San Diego St. -440

Analysis

San Diego St. comes into this matchup as heavy favorites in Vegas. The matchups tell the tale, as they win 5/6 matchups against UNLV. San Diego St. has a top-10 rated defense according to the model, so this is definitely a hard uphill battle for UNLV, who has a frankly terrible offense. UNLV has to hope that their defense plays well enough to keep a mediocre SDSU offense at bay, while their offense lucks into a big play here or there to stay in the game. SDSU is prone to laying the occasional offensive egg, but the model gives them an 85% chance to win the game.

San Diego St. Closest Prior Matchup Score:

17-31

UNLV Closest Prior Matchup Score:

27-17

San Diego State’s CPM does not look great for their offense, as they had a poor showing against Hawaii, albeit in a win. In the end, the model thinks the SDSU defense is too much for UNLV to overcome and has SDSU covering the 11 point spread.