Matchup: Wisconsin vs. Minnesota

Vegas Line: Wisconsin -7

Room44B Predicted Line: Wisconsin -2

Room44B Minimum Value Moneyline: Wisconsin -111

Analysis

Our model absolutely loves the Badgers. As you can see, they’re rated the #1 rushing defense, #2 rushing offense, #3 defense overall and the #6 team in our ratings. The only problem there is that these stats are mainly on a per-play basis, and once you start taking scoring and efficiency into consideration, the shine comes off of Wisconsin a bit.

In terms of matchups, Wisconsin looks to dominate at first glance. They win 5/6, with the only win for Minnesota being their passing defense versus a mediocre Badgers passing attack. It’s no surprise looking at this that the Total for the game is a whopping 39 points. Minnesota has to hope that their running game can find some holes in a defense that no one has been able to expose yet. The positive note is that Minnesota is the 3rd most consistent team running the ball, meaning they have run it well no matter who they were playing. If that keeps up, the model thinks they have a chance to keep the game under a touchdown.

Wisconsin Closest Prior Matchup Score:

20-14

Minnesota Closest Prior Matchup Score:

31-13

The CPM scores also bode well for Minnesota, as Wisconsin’s struggles offensively mean that this one will likely stay low-scoring. In the end the model likes Wisconsin to win, but thinks Minnesota will cover the spread.